Answers to FAQs
About DDSS
Questions about Ratings
Betting Strategy
Handicapping software
DDSS Specifics
Track Questions
About DDSS
The principle of using Delphi Decision Support System
(DDSS) Selections is similar to the techniques used by professional card
counters playing blackjack in casinos. When the composition of the remaining
cards in a deck is favorable to the dealer, they bet less. When it is favorable
to the player, they bet more. That simple principle has enabled teams of
professional card counters to earn millions of dollars1
playing blackjack in casinos.
When you bet more in favorable situations and bet less in unfavorable
situations, your chances for earning a profit2
increase dramatically.
In a randomly selected group of 500 races, 65-90% of those races
will represent a negative expectation—unfavorable betting situations that,
if made over time, will invariably result in losses. Maiden races, unusually
short races, unusually long races, races with solid contenders switching to a
new track surface, races with shippers with unknown form, races with entries
returning from layoffs, races with one standout entry that seems almost guaranteed
to win, races with several entries dropping in class with unknown form, and
several other types of races, all have a negative expectation.
In contrast, there are groups of races at particular tracks, in particular
grades, and under particular circumstances, that have a positive expectation.
Wagering on those races may routinely return a flat bet profit of $1.10 to $1.20
or more for every $1.00 bet. If wagers are restricted to that profitable group of
races, and no bets are made on the unprofitable groups of races, winning is
almost guaranteed.3
The almost is necessary, because there is always a possibility
that the situation may change due to unforeseen or unpredictable external
circumstances—a sudden increase in temperature or humidity, high winds, changes
in the track surface, or some other event—may substantally influence the outcome
of individual races and groups of races.
Our goal in creating the algorithms and data models for DDSS Ratings is a
return-on-investment of 120% or more on win bets, and a return-on-investment of
130% or more on exacta, trifecta, and Pick 3 wagers. Our focus is always on
maximizing profit, rather than selecting a high number of low-priced winners to
inflate "win percentage" figures. Our intent is to provide members with
information that will enable them to profit from wagers on future races,
rather than claiming value because of what happened in races last month or last
year.
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Because we are professional bettors, our focus has always been on earning a profit from wagering. Harness
racing--and the DDSS Harness Professional Software--make that fairly easy. The ROI from exacta, trifecta, and
superfecta wagers using DDSS Harness Professional Software is more than five times greater than the ROI from those wagers using DDSS Thoroughbred Professional Software (which consistently outperforms
any commercially available race analysis application). We emphasize harness racing because we are pari-mutuel
investors, not hobbyists. Our interest is in profit, not "sport."
The simple truth is that 95% of all racing fans lose money. While major track thoroughbred racing
attracts the attention of a number of serious bettors and betting syndicates, harness racing offers a much
higher potential for profit. Pari-mutuel investing is an activity that requires objective, critical analysis
of available opportunities, rather than viewing races as a "sport" or "hobby." Many more wagering professionals
and wagering syndicates derive their income from harness racing than from thoroughbred racing.
The primary reason for the success of professional-level wagering at harness tracks has to do with the
tendency of the average racing fan to want to cash tickets, rather than to make a profit. Psychologists refer
to the phenomena as the "need to be right." Most racing fans wager in a manner that assures the immediate
gratification of cashing a winning ticket, rather than the long-term satisfaction of consistently profiting from
his or her wagers.
Professional bettors fully understand that chasing nickels and dimes in the win pools is the ultimate
stupidity. Their focus is almost exclusively on the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta pools as the primary
sources of windfall profits. While the $4 winner is the center of attention for amateurs and hobbyists, the
strong contender going off at 35-1 that places, creating a $27,000 superfecta payoff, is of much greater interest
to professional bettors.
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Earning above average returns wagering on pari-mutuel races
is relatively easy, as long as three conditions are met:
1) You have better information than the
other bettors.
2) You have better analytical tools
than the other bettors.
3) You are motivated and ambitious enough to want to win.
Our goal is to enable you to satisfy the first two conditions—while
substantially reducing both the complexity and the risk associated with wagering
on pari-mutuel races. If you really want to win, DDSS Ratings
will provide the information and resources you need to make top quality,
successful wagering decisions every racing day.
Delphi Decision Support System (DDSS)
Ratings are designed and created by highly-motivated professional handicappers
who want to win. For both recreational and professional bettors who lack the
time for the in-depth analysis required to earn above average returns, and who
demand the best information possible for their wagering decisions, we offer
DDSS Harness Advanced Ratings and DDSS Thoroughbred Advanced Ratings
on a subscription basis for just $297 per month.
DDSS Power Play Races are the 10 to 20 highest-value spot plays in each
day's thoroughbred races. Unlike "rating services,"
we focus exclusively on the specific selections in the specific
races that offer the greatest potential for profit. DDSS Ratings are
focused on value, not win percentages. We believe that profit should be
the primary motive in each and every wager, and every selection is made
with profit as the primary goal.
Every DDSS Rating is an exact fit to a computer-generated profile of
current high-value winners that is specific to each track. DDSS Ratings
pinpoint the high-value contenders currently winning and currently
offering the highest potential for profit at each track.
Only entries that fit the precise, current profile of data models
for positive expectation win selections and exacta selections--specific to the
track, distance, and class level--are considered for DDSS Power Play Races.
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Background
For the past 10 years, both professional and recreational bettors have been forced to
modify their methods to compensate for the increasingly sophisticated and knowledgeable
racing fans who use software applications to analyze races.
Simplistic analyses of early speed, average pace, earnings per start, and track
variants that produced generous profits in the 1990s are no longer useful. The
proliferation of software applications for analyzing thoroughbred races has
changed the fundamental nature of pari-mutuel
wagering.
While methodologies developed in the 1990s still select a large number of
winners, those winners return substantially less than they did even three or four
years ago. Entries with high Beyer Speed Numbers or Early Pace ratings are
routinely overbet by sophisticated racing fans knowledgeable about the intricacies
of race analysis.
Simplistic software applications that devote substantially more code to
database manipulation than selecting winners are sold for as much as $3000, and
require monthly data subscriptions that add another $1500 a year or more to the
cost. Despite the apparent complexity of those applications, most use core
calculations of pace and speed, combined with various “spot plays” that may have
won in the past, but show little tendency to repeat those wins in the present or
future.
For hobbyists or recreational handicappers, pari-mutuel racing offers the same
excitement and challenge as it did 10 years ago. For both professional and recreational
bettors, increasingly sophisticated and complex methods are required to stay ahead of
the crowd—many of whom routinely use computers to analyze the past performances of the
entries in a given race.
And—while that analysis may not form the basis for final wagering decisions—most racing
fans give careful consideration to speed and pace ratings, final times, class changes, and
other patterns that indicate performance improvement or decline.
To stay ahead of the crowd takes a willingness to go beyond the simplistic observations
of speed, pace, class, conditions, and trainer patterns readily available to the general
public, and to take advantage of information that is predictive, but not widely available.
The most successful current approach to pari-mutuel wagering is the application of
business analysis software to race analysis.
The same complex software applications used
as the basis for decisions involving millions (and sometimes billions) of dollars can be used
to predict the outcome of pari-mutuel races.
Analytical software, whether called enterprise resource planning (ERP) or decision support
software (DSS), is primarily based on statistical analysis. Data about some event or process is
fed in, various statistical processes are applied to that data, and information comes out. The
more sophisticated the data model used to select the data analyzed, the more useful the results;
unless the data is carefully screened before it is entered into the computer, the “information”
generated is likely to be worthless.
The primary constraints for enterprise research are the accuracy and complexity of the data model
used. In particular, skill at separating data into clusters or “layers” is essential to generate
meaningful information, rather than simply crunching numbers.
How DDSS Was Developed
Our initial studies used sophisticated business software applications to analyze the results of
more than 10,000 thoroughbred races. Using the same statistical research and decision support software
applications used to make business forecasts and investment decisions, we were able to determine the most
predictive factors in the jumble of available data.
A substantial amount of subsequent modification and improvement of the DDSS algorithms has been based
on modeling the subjective decision-making processes of a team of professional bettors using a statistical
research technique called "bootstrapping.”
Delphi Decision Support System (DDSS) represents the successful
synthesis of the best statistical research techniques with the complex, subjective, and semi-intuitive
decision-making processes of a team of professional bettors.
DDSS is a conceptual quantum leap ahead of any other methodology for predicting the outcome of pari-mutuel
races. DDSS effectively blends the highly subjective pattern-recognition skills of professional bettors with
the sophisticated statistics and data modeling capabilities of enterprise resource planning (ERP) and
decision support system (DSS) software.
Busy professional and recreational bettors demand that information be presented in a clear, concise format
that can be used as a decision-making tool. DDSS is designed from the ground up to provide the information
busy professional and recreational bettors need to save time, reduce complexity, and earn above average returns with
acceptable levels of risk.
If you enjoy racing, and you enjoy wagering, you know that to keep doing doing what you love
requires that you win more than you bet. DDSS Ratings are dedicated to enabling you to do just that.
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We are not "gamblers." We are a team of business analysts and software developers
who share an interest in thoroughbred racing and harness racing, and who also share
the strong belief that
pari-mutuel racing should be evaluated using the same criteria applied to any other
business enterprise or investment opportunity. That is, pari-mutuel investing should be
considered the equivalent of investing in stocks, real estate, or other commodities.
The term generally used to describe what we do is "enterprise solutions developers."
That means we analyze business problems and find ways to solve them. A great deal of the
solution process is very similar to processes used to analyze and evaluate thoroughbred
and harness horse races. Historical data is analyzed for patterns and trends that may suggest
future outcomes, repeated data is searched to determine relative probabilities, and
tentative projections are continually monitored for ways to make them more accurate,
more predictive, and more profitable.
Our intention going forward is to make DDSS
Thoroughbred Professional Software and DDSS Harness Professional Software
primarily focused on the needs of professional bettors and professional betting
syndicates,
while still providing ratings that can be successfully used by recreational and
occasional
bettors who lack the time to spend four or five hours every day studying race
results, building
wagering models, and maintaining detailed records.
Modeling
A key part of data analysis is "modeling." Modeling is the process of monitoring
successful activity in a given area, then breaking that activity into a manageable
series of steps that can be readily communicated to others, and replicated with
minimal error. In short, modelers reduce complexity by analyzing the processes and
procedures involved, and putting them into a more understandable framework.
The Origin of DDSS
As graduate business students at Arizona State University, we were given the
opportunity to study thoroughbred racing as the basis for a semester project in
data analysis and data modeling. As racing fans, we realized that the available
"handicapping software" used simplistic approaches that were not much better than
those used by the "Sartin Methodologists" in the 1980s--essentially basic speed and
pace calculations.
Because we were graduate business students, we had full access to state-of-the-art
enterprise resource planning (ERP) and decision support system (DSS) software, as well
as the latest versions of an impressive array of statistical analysis and data modeling
applications.
Because no one had ever used enterprise-grade software applications to analyze
race results, we programmed the applications to search for correlations and
relationships that might be invisible to less sophisticated software applications.
The results of our initial studies in 2003 indicated that competent use of ERP
and DSS methodologies could provide a significant advantage to potential investors
when applied to thoroughbred race analysis. The original DDSS software combined the
analytical capabilities of ERP and DSS software applications; in 2004, the algorithms
were modified to accept Delphi Method predictions from a team of professional
pari-mutuel investors that dramatically improved the results. We applied the same methods
to developing DDSS Harness Professional Software, and the latter has been the primary
wagering tool of more than 20 pari-mutuel investors and betting syndicates since its
release in early 2006.
Data Analysis
From the beginning, DDSS Ratings have been strongly influenced by modeling the
decision-making processes of professional pari-mutuel investors. Because we have
always considered pari-mutuel investing as a business enterprise intent on generating
profit, we have gone to extremes to avoid the data analysis errors that plague handicapping
software developers and system sellers, and that prevent their clients and users from earning
sustainable profits.
Rather than looking at a data sample representing several thousand races and
asking, "What could have been done to extract a profit from this sample of races,"
we looked instead for factors in the previous race data that would have predicted
the most profitable outcomes. When those factors were isolated, they were then
tested on new samples of races in a continual iterative process that enabled us to
extract certain general principles and factors that could be applied productively to
most race samples.
Our development philosophy was the complete opposite of that used by handicapping
software developers and system sellers. Rather than applying their algorithms in the
real world, they base their strategies on past events exclusively; today's strategies
are based on what would have been successful yesterday
if you had applied the
strategy yesterday.
Delphi Decision Support System
Delphi Decision Support System (DDSS)
was originally developed as a modification of the decision support system software
used by day traders to analyze and track stock market trends. In 2004 we successfully
modified the algorithms to incorporate the Delphi Method decision-making process,
in essence blending quantitative and qualitative methods in a research methodology
called "triangulation." In 2006 we developed a complete new set of algorithms for harness
races that incorporated the Delphi Method and released a limited number of copies to
professional pari-mutuel investors and betting syndicates as DDSS Harness Professional Software.
DDSS Thoroughbred Professional Software and DDSS Harness Professional Software now effectively
combine the best data analysis and data modeling
processes with the subjective, semi-intuitive decision-making processes of expert
race analysts to produce the most accurate, most predictive, most profitable race analysis and
race ratings available at any price.
DDSS Ratings2 are produced by a suite of
proprietary software applications that use sophisticated multiple regression
analysis and statistical modeling in combination with qualitative data processes
to create data models of the most likely winner of each race, at each class level,
at each distance, at each track.
Each data model is then analyzed for potentially profitable investment
opportunities, using complex algorithms that combine win frequencies,
rates of return, current wagering patterns, trainer patterns, trainer and
jockey/driver combinations, and a number of other key factors. Using rigorous statistical
modeling methods, race entries that fit the data profile for the specific track,
at the specific distance, and in the specific class level are considered for
potential investment.
Delphi Decision Support System utilizes the same sophisticated data analysis
and data modeling methodologies that form the basis of
enterprise resource
planning
(ERP)3 and decision support systems
(DSS) software—used on a daily basis by upper management of Fortune 500
corporations to make multimillion-dollar strategy and investment decisions.
Delphi Decision Support System is the first—and only—decision support system
for pari-mutuel thoroughbred race analysis and harness race analysis planned, designed, and
developed by successful, professional pari-mutuel investors primarily for their
own use.
Delphi Decision Support System is the first—and only—decision support system
for both professional and recreational pari-mutuel bettors that leverages the full
potential of enterprise resource planning and decision support system software in
combination with qualitative data analysis processes to accurately predict the
outcome of pari-mutuel races.
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Questions about Ratings
DDSS Ratings are designed for both recreational and professional bettors who want to leverage
pari-mutuel wagering into above average returns. Whether you are a novice, recreational bettor, or
a full-time professional, DDSS Ratings will provide the information, tools, and strategies you need
to win more, lose less, and make wagering enjoyable and exciting.
DDSS Ratings are not recommended for bettors of any skill level who wager "by the day"--unreasonably
expecting that each and every day will be profitable. Successful bettors understand that the outcome of a
single race can turn several days of mediocre or poor results into a stunning profit.
Bettors who consider themselves "expert handicappers" also tend to do poorly. They seem unable or
unwilling to follow simple instructions, while continually second-guessing the recommended strategies.
Similarly, DDSS Ratings are not recommended for bettors whose need to be right exceeds their desire to
make a profit. The "need to be right" bettors can easily be recognized by their inclination to box and wheel
contenders in various ways to assure cashing a ticket,
often returning less than the amount of the wagers.
(New York and California tracks seem to have the most "need to be right" bettors, and that provides
unique profit opportunities for professional bettors; favorites are overbet for the win position, but are
often overlays in the place and show positions in the exotic pools.)
The last category of bettor that should avoid DDSS Ratings is the "forum watcher" who sees frequent wins
from the "selections" posted, but ignores the total cost of ownership (TCO) of the wagers necessary to
catch those wins. On most forums, "selectors" either ignore results completely (to avoid admitting huge
losses), or only comment on wins (ignoring the $24 per race cost of four-entry exacta boxes, and the $48 cost
of four-entry trifecta boxes in every race needed to "catch" the occasional wins.) In almost every case,
the TCO of forum selections is as much as five or ten times the amount of the return. (Four-entry exacta and
trifecta boxes in each of 10 races costs $720 per track, per day.)
For bettors intent on earning a profit, DDSS Ratings provide the equivalent of a black belt in wagering;
immediate access to the skills, knowledge, and experience of a group of professional bettors who are willing
and able to share their insights with members. For the modest cost of a DDSS membership, you gain access
to information and resources that would take 5-10 years of intense effort to develop on your own, and
full-time immersion in race analysis and data modeling to maintain.
Rather than struggling and losing for years to learn the skills necessary to analyze races and wager
successfully, all you really need to win is a membership to DDSS Thoroughbred Advanced Ratings or DDSS
Harness Advanced Ratings. JOIN THE WINNERS USING DDSS RATINGS TODAY!
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First, and foremost, determine if the ratings are actually used by the
developers in their own wagering, and whether or not that wagering is successful.
Most, if not all, thoroughbred race analysis and harness race analysis software
and most rating services are not profitable; the developers depend on revenue
from sales to generate
income because use of their product fails to produce a positive return.
Second, are detailed instructions included for how to apply the ratings in
different situations. Are Minimum Acceptable Odds (MAO) clearly
defined? Are specific, detailed criteria included for how and when to make win
bets, when to bet exactas, when to box exactas, and when not to bet at
all? If not, bettors should look elsewhere for their ratings. The old-time admonition
of Sartin Methodologists that "the only rule is that there are no rules" expired more
than a decade ago from terminal stupidity.
Third, it is best to avoid the computer-generated "laundry list" strategies
that recommend multiple exacta and trifecta boxes and wheels in every race at
every track. Implementing such strategies can cost $5000 to $10,000 or more per
day when wagering multiple tracks, and almost always results in substantial
losses. The occasional wins yield a small percentage of the amounts required in
wagers to catch those few wins.
For both professional and recreational bettors, explicit instructions should
be included that leverage data models and ongoing multiple regression analysis to
optimal advantage. Recommended strategies should be specific to the individual
race, not mechanically generated "ratings" spewed out by some simplistic
"handicapping" application. Such ratings are virtually useless, regardless of
whether you are betting $20 or $200 on a race.
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DDSS Ratings are created primarily for our own use,
rather than being simply "ratings" generated by a computer program. Preliminary
contender selection, pace line selection, and pre-race analysis are all performed
by professional handicappers who are intimately familiar with the trainers,
jockeys/drivers, horses, and peculiarities of each track on each racing circuit.
Once the preliminary analysis has been completed, the data for each contender is
entered into the DDSS Selection Matrix
using the exact same process we use to
handicap races for our own wagering.
The DDSS Selection Matrix compares and evaluates the contenders using 53
different variables that are uniquely weighted and combined for each surface,
distance, class level, and track. The DDSS Selection Matrix ranks each contender on a
number of highly predictive, composite factors we call Power Ratings that
effectively combine speed, pace, class, current condition, and
each contender's probability of winning against the precise
competition it is facing today.
The Power Ratings used in
DDSS Ratings
are the exact same ratings, calculated in the exact
same way, that we use successfully on a daily basis in our own wagering.
DDSS Ratings are ranked by investment value, not win
probability. Because most bettors tend to "follow the crowd" and overbet
favorites, DDSS Ratings and DDSS Power Play Races focus on
maximizing ROI rather than on selecting low-priced
favorites. "Betting chalk" is an inappropriate strategy for anyone intent on
earning a profit from wagering.
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Because 95% of pari-mutuel racing fans lose money, including those with
years of handicapping experience, and those using the "latest, greatest" software
applications. The reasons are simple; they lack the time to devote the 3 to 4
hours every day to race analysis that is essential to win consistently, or they
use out-dated or inappropriate analytical tools.
While it is certainly possible to win occasionally using "angle plays" or
"handicapping" software, the long-term results are dismal.
Our goal in creating the algorithms and data models for DDSS Ratings is a
return-on-investment of 120% or more on win bets, and a return-on-investment of
130% or more on exacta, trifecta, and Pick 3 wagers for both thoroughbred races
and harness races.
Our focus is always on maximizing profit, rather than selecting a high number
of low-priced winners to inflate "win percentage" figures. (Some harness race
selectors routinely claim win percentages of 40-45%. They NEVER mention that the
return on those wins is around 60 cents for every dollar wagered. With the majority
of winners returning less than even money, it would take a win percentage of 60-75%
just to break even!)Our intent is always to
provide members with information that will enable them to profit from wagers
on future races, rather than spurious claims of high win percentages of
odds-on favorites.
Selecting winners of pari-mutuel races is not particularly difficult. The
difficult part is picking enough winners, at high enough mutuel prices, to earn a
profit from wagering. It is even more difficult to earn a profit consistently.
Many hobbyist handicappers and computer handicappers have winning days, and
some even have an occasional winning week. However, full-time professionals who
devote at least 3 to 4 hours every day to race analysis are the bettors most
likely to have winning months and winning years. DDSS Ratings give you the same
edge against the general public enjoyed by professional bettors who devote 5 to 6
hours every day to race analysis and race modeling.
Rather than thinking of DDSS Ratings as a substitute for your own race analysis
and insights, think of them as time-saving shortcuts.
We do all the time-consuming preliminary work of keeping records, building
data models and track profiles, selecting contenders, comparing past performances,
and analyzing speed, pace, class, trainer patterns, jockey/driver-trainer combinations,
and dozens of other factors in every race so you can enjoy the races and focus on
WINNING!
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Because the ratings we provide are the exact same ratings we use in our own wagering. We are not
hobbyists, or recreational handicappers. Everything we do is focused on one purpose; profitable wagering.
The ratings we produce are designed, modeled, produced, maintained, and continually upgraded to make
wagering on those ratings more profitable, both for our members and for us.
We strongly believe that by enabling you to win more and lose less, you will be highly motivated to
continue your DDSS membership on a permanent basis. One of the ways we accomplish this is by providing you
with explicit strategies that increase your ability to win, and with the projected order of finish for each
race.
Conversely, the "free ratings" posted on forums are usually laundry lists of possible contenders--four
(or more) in each race--so that any of the "selections" finishing anywhere in the money can be considered
a "success." In most cases, the free ratings are simply the opinions of amateurs unable to turn a profit on
their own who want to share their lack of skill with others.
In other cases, the selections are posted by system sellers and software developers as marketing ploys;
rather than representing critical race analysis, the free selections are posted daily in the hope that the
sheer volume will contain enough winners to persuade some new site visitor to buy their wares.
The marketers--often called "site sponsors" because they buy ads on the site--emphasize their few wins in
multiple postings "congratulating" the selector, while losses are virtually ignored. The
cost of wagering
on the free selections is often five to ten times the amounts won on those selections.
The bottom line is that handicapping forums are marketing vehicles for advertisers; their revenue depends
on page hits; the more people that view their pages, the more they can charge advertisers. "Free ratings"
attract a large number of hobbyist racing fans who rarely bet, or who only bet trivial amounts, but who
click on advertiser's links in search of the latest miracle method.
Because handicapping forums are intended to generate a profit from revenues, they cater to advertisers;
the typical scenario involves multiple postings by "clients" of a particular software application, rating
service, or system seller claiming huge profits. The illusion of "unsolicited testimonials" propagated by
the forum format enables forum advertisers to make uncontested "third-party endorsements" of their own
products.
Sales are stimulated among the more gullible forum readers who uncritically accept postings as "peer
endorsements", which in turn motivates the advertisers to continue buying ads on the forum. Good for the
software developer or rating service, but really bad for the hapless reader who accepts claims of "$60,000
profit from last 50 selections" or "I made $270,000 last year using this software" as true statements. In
general, they are pure marketing puffery.
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Our goal in creating the algorithms and data models for DDSS Ratings is a
return-on-investment of 120% or more on win bets, and a return-on-investment of
130% or more on exacta, trifecta, and Pick 3 wagers. Our focus is always on
maximizing profit, rather than selecting a high number of low-priced winners to
inflate "win percentage" figures. Our intent is to provide members with
information that will enable them to profit from wagers on future races,
rather than claiming value because of what happened in races last month or last
year.
The simple truth is that "win percentages" and "return-on-investment"
figures are both irrelevant and misleading, unless the data used is corrected
for anomalies.
The system seller trick of expressing the combination of "win
percentage and ROI" based on some small sample of races is especially deceptive.
It implies that the figures are somehow static and repeatable, and that the bettor
only need follow the method to gain the indicated amount of profit.
Similarly, the popular "workouts" and "regression analyses" used to "prove"
profitability for software applications or wagering methods are equally
misleading. Specifically, paper trials and regression studies that are based on
non-existent or trivial wagers, with results calculated only on the basis
of what other bettors did, are meaningless from the standpoint of prediction. If
the bettor's winning wagers are factored in, even a long-term 15-20% paper profit
can disappear in the real world.
Claims for "return-on-investment" on wagers not made are irrelevant.
Numerous racing publications--and virtually every current handicapping software
application
that uses "regression modeling"--have prospered because the average racing fan
mistakenly
believes that "workouts" of some system, method, or "racing angle" indicating a
positive return in a small sample of races "proves" that wagers made according to
the specified criteria are almost "guaranteed to win."
Further popularized by Howard Sartin and the "Sartin Methodologists" in the
1980s, the notion that horse races are almost mechanically repetitive was readily
(and uncritically) accepted by large numbers of unsophisticated racing fans, who
discovered the only dependable regularity in thoroughbred racing was the frequency
of their losses pursuing the goal of static win percentages and "paper profits."
As Lawrence Revere, author of Playing Blackjack as a Business stated,
"It doesn't matter who wins or who loses. The important thing is who ends up with
the money." Focusing on value-driven selections and earning above average returns
over time are the important issues in wagering, not the false security and false
expectations created by claims of "win percentages" and
"return-on-investment" as if they were static and endlessly repeatable.
Anyone who believes otherwise is strongly encouraged to try out one of the current crop
of "handicapping software applications"--along with the $120-160 a month data download fees--and
to follow all the recommendations for building "regression models" with the various "Robots" and
"Analyzers" used by the software. Then bet on the "spot plays" supposedly generated by that process.
It should take no longer than two months to realize that uncritical acceptance of past results using
raw data is worthless to anyone who intendes to wager on those spot plays. Or you can use the money to
buy a 30-day access subscription to DDSS Harness Advanced Ratings or DDSS Thoroughbred Advanced
Ratings and join the winners using DDSS Ratings.
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No. We believe that our practice of limiting the number of new subscriptions
available has minimized the problem, both for us and for our subscribers.
To further protect the generous mutuels available to our subscribers, sale of
the new DDSS Thoroughbred Professional Software and DDSS Harness Professional Software
race analysis applications will be strictly limited. For each copy of the thoroughbred software
distributed, we will reduce the number of DDSS Thoroughbred Advanced Ratings subscriptions
available each month by two. For each copy of the harness software
distributed, we will reduce the number of DDSS Harness Advanced Ratings subscriptions
available each month by two.
We have a cap of 100 DDSS Thoroughbred Advanced subscriptions and 100 DDSS Harness
Advanced subscriptions sold in any
given month. If we distribute 20 copies of DDSS Thoroughbred Professional race
analysis software, that number will be reduced to 60 available subscriptions
each month. If we distribute 50 copies, we will no longer offer DDSS Thoroughbred
Advanced subscriptions. Similarly, if we distribute 20 copies of DDSS Harness Professional race
analysis software, the number of available DDSS Harness Advanced Ratings will be reduced to 60
subscriptions each month. If we distribute 50 copies of the harness race analysis software, we will
no longer offer DDSS Harness Advanced subscriptions. That may seem unfair, but we feel it is
essential to
protect the profits of those who buy the software, as well as our own profit from
wagering on the output of that software.
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Betting Strategy
DDSS Power Play Races are the 10 to 20 best value races on any given racing day. Because
they are extracted as the best bets available at the numerous tracks for which we
maintain data models, there may or may not be ratings for a particular track on a
given day. However, most members find that it is more fun to make a winning bet
at a track they don't care about than to make a losing bet at their favorite track.
DDSS Full-Card Ratings are full-card selections for every bettable race at 6 to 20 of the most
popular tracks. DDSS Full-Card Ratings provide ample opportunities for racing fans who want a lot
of action, with a good chance of making a score. While not as tightly focused as DDSS Power Play
Races, DDSS Full-Card Ratings provide solid plays in almost every race at a large number of tracks.
Some tracks offer more opportunities than others. We recommend that you monitor
the results of races at your track(s) of interest, compare them to the DDSS Full-Card Ratings and
DDSS Power Play Races,
and determine the particular combination that best fits your wagering
style. You may discover that the leverage provided by DDSS Full-Card Ratings and DDSS Power Play Races
enables you
to increase your ROI by wagering less and concentrating on high-value races rather
than restricting your wagers to a favorite track.
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While we strongly recommend that both professional and recreational bettors rely on accurate
data models, a strong statistical advantage, and strictly controlled wagering that leverages the
advantage created by those tools, we realize that many members lack the time required for
wagering on a daily basis. For those members, we offer specific Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 6, and trifecta
strategies.
The leverage provided by certain types of wagers--in particular the Pick 3 and Pick 4--can turn a
prolonged string of losses into a substantial profit for the day, week, or month in a single race.
We offer specific implementation strategies for members who prefer that leverage.
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We believe that recreational bettors deserve the same high-quality ratings and customer
service that professional bettors enjoy. Extensive usability studies conducted during beta
testing of our new DDSS Professional software applications strongly suggest that the two
biggest problems for most recreational and occasional bettors is their
inability to isolate
playable races.
and their inability to apply Minimum Acceptable Odds (MAO).
Because there are so many races available, recreational bettors tend to wager on too many
races that are low value or negative expectation. In short, even when they pick a lot of
winners, the amounts they win are still less than the amounts they wager.
Because many recreational bettors wager on all the races at a given track at one time, rather than
making the bet-or-pass decisions close to post time based on odds available that is typical of professional
bettors, they lose a lot of the leverage available with DDSS Ratings.
To solve these problems, we performed a complete re-calculation of our database, using multiple
regression analysis to locate patterns and trends that can be successfully utilized by recreational
bettors who lack the time to spend four or five hours every day studying race results, building
data models, and maintaining detailed records.
In short, we wanted to locate strategies that would enable recreational bettors
to have almost the same advantage as the professionals who wager on a full-time basis.
The new DDSS Power Play Races include detailed instructions that enable members to wager primarily
in positive expectation situations, and to avoid wagering in negative expectation situations. We have
completely re-structured our implementation strategies to enable recreational bettors to take full advantage
of both DDSS Power Play Races and DDSS Full-Card Ratings.
While recreational bettors may not gain the full advantage of professionals making the bet-or-pass
decisions close to post time based on odds available, the new format of DDSS Power Play Races enables them
to make wagering decisions based on the morning line odds of the top-ranked DDSS Power Play Race selections
provided by YouBet and others.
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DDSS Ratings are an incredibly valuable tool for professional bettors that
can be just as valuable for recreational or part-time bettors. Because our focus
is on pari-mutuel wagering as a business enterprise, the ratings we provide are
designed to enable members to win more and lose less.
Recreational and occasional bettors in particular can benefit from using DDSS
Power Play Races because each selection provided has a positive expectation;
the
models used as the basis for producing the selections have been statistically
proven to have generated a flat bet profit over time. The data models used to determine
DDSS Power Play Races are based on sophisticated multiple regression analysis of spot plays
that have been statistically proven to generate an ROI of 110% or more.
Our goal in creating the algorithms and data models for DDSS Ratings is a
return-on-investment of 120% or more on win bets, and a return-on-investment of
130% or more on exacta, trifecta, and Pick 3 wagers.
Our focus is always on maximizing profit, rather than selecting a high number
of low-priced winners to inflate "win percentage" figures. Our intent is to provide
members with information that will enable them to profit from wagers on
future races, rather than claiming value because of what happened in races
last month or last year.
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If you are betting less than $500 per race, minor tracks offer much greater
opportunities for profit. The larger mutuel pools at major tracks make them
more attractive to bettors wagering $500 or more per race. The primary reason
for the emphasis on major track races in some publications and on most online
racing forums is social; hobbyist handicappers discuss major track races in much
the same manner that other people discuss the weather.
Because the names of the horses and trainers are familiar to many hobbyists,
comments that use those familiar names tend to provoke more responses from other
hobbyists. The emphasis on major track races is deceiving, as are the
discussions--hobbyist handicappers rarely bet more than trivial amounts, and the
"discussions" are more a process of socialization than of information exchange.
For any potential pari-mutuel investor seeking above average returns, minor
tracks offer substantially greater opportunities for profit than major tracks.
The only downside of wagering at tracks like Mountaineer, Charlestown, Canterbury,
Emerald Downs, Louisiana Downs, and Philadelphia Park is that wagers may need to
be distributed more than at major tracks to avoid negative impact on the mutuel
pools.
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No more than a forecast of clear skies “guarantees” that it won’t rain.
In both cases, predictions are based on historical data; what happened in
the past is modeled to predict what will happen in the future. Statistical
models comprising the results of more than 220,000 pari-mutuel races suggest
that wagering on races carries the same potential for profit or loss as other
types of investment involving risk.
Just as there are no guarantees that stock trading will be profitable,
so are there no guarantees that wagering on pari-mutuel races will be
profitable. Both types of investing contain elements of risk and the
possibility of loss. Bettors strictly adhering to the optimal wagering
strategy defined by Delphi Decision Support System and restricting wagers to
positive expectation situations have the best chance of earning long-term profits.
Our goal in creating the algorithms and data models for DDSS Ratings is a
return-on-investment of 120% or more on win bets, and a return-on-investment of
130% or more on exacta, trifecta, and Pick 3 wagers. Our focus is always on
maximizing profit, rather than selecting a high number of low-priced winners to
inflate "win percentage" figures. Our intent is to provide members with
information that will enable them to profit from wagers on future races,
rather than claiming value because of what happened in races last month or last
year.
One of the most powerful advantages of the DDSS modeling process is the
StopLoss algorithm that detects anomalies in positive expectation situations. When
a cycle of races based on a positive expectation model does not produce a profit,
the StopLoss algorithm enables users to minimize losses by "flagging" the
unacceptably low returns. The StopLoss algorithm is designed to prevent the
catastrophic losing streaks and losses associated with the use of some selection
methods or progressive wagering strategies1.
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Handicapping software
Handicapping software applications routinely ignore the most basic
processes of statistics and research to create the illusion of profitability
where it doesn't exist. Because applications fail to correct for outliers (unusual
results that distort the "analysis"), the "models" generated are wildly inaccurate,
especially the inflated ROI figures (return on investment).
Applications routinely create "profiles" that suggest substantial profit can
be made betting a certain factor, or combination of factors. That "profit" is
often based on outliers--unusual and unlikely-to-be-repeated mutuel prices that
may not be repeated in the next 100, or even 500 races, if ever. Betting on such
flawed data models should be avoided. Any handicapping software that fails to
follow at least basic statistical modeling and research methods should be
dismissed as worthless. Unfortunately, that includes virtually every "handicapping
application" currently marketed to the general public.
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The primary reason handicapping software applications fail is that they
train incompetency in their users. In blunt terms, the longer you use handicapping
software applications as "decision aids," the less able you will be to make
correct decisions on your own. In even more blunt terms, using the majority of
the current crop of handicapping software makes you LESS competent as a race
analyst.
The reasons are far from philosophical. The further removed you are from the
primary data, the less able you are to accurately evaluate that data. When the
data is massaged and presented on a computer screen as "ratings," any skill you
believe you are gaining is in interpreting the readouts, not in interpreting the
primary data. You are essentially training yourself to fail, by substituting the
software output for decision processes.
In data analysis terms, you are training yourself to interpret seriously
deficient models, rather than to interpret the primary data from which the
models are derived. While the primary data may contain the
information you
need to win,
the models inappropriately derived from that data represent
obfuscation, not insight. Seeking causality where none exists is a fool's game.
The Sartin Methodology
The greatest strength of the Sartin Methodology (an extremely popular and
profitable race analysis approach from the 1980s) was the requirement that
users study the race results in conjunction with the ratings generated by the
various software applications. Sartin realized, as a psychologist, that the act
of "searching for patterns and answers" was a great training method to develop
decision making skills.
What the most sophisticated Sartin users quickly discovered was that the
software was almost irrelevant; there was no "killer app" that would mechanically
select enough winners, consistently enough, to be profitable over time. However,
the more those users struggled in the assigned tasks of "isolating the true
contenders in the race" and "finding the most predictive pace line" for each of
those contenders, the better race analysts they became.
The more intelligent of the Sartin advocates caught on early; they realized
that selecting the "proper pace lines" and "true contenders" essentially forced
them to analyze the past performances in a completely new way. The most difficult
part of the process for many "experienced handicappers" was the implication that
in most cases, the winner was uncovered
before the first pace line was entered
into the computer.
Specifically, the training process developed the skill of
pre-race analysis to a sufficient degree that the "computer readouts" became almost
irrelevant.
Because Sartin's income was derived from the sale of the steady stream of the
"latest, greatest" software to "analyze races," the notion that those software
applications were training devices, rather than "real" analysis aids was kept
under wraps. Unfortunately, the fall from grace of the Sartin Methodology was
based on all the wrong reasons; later users argued that the "software didn't
really do anything" beyond generating simplistic pace ratings. That was true,
as far as it went, but failed completely to explain how Sartin managed to
train an entire generation of race analysts, a number of whom have been wagering
successfully since the 1980s.
From Sublime to Ridiculous
In stark contrast to the Sartin Methodologists, contemporary "computer
handicappers" are some of the poorest
race analysts around. While many believe their software applications enable them
to "see races in a whole new way," the simple truth is that the "learning curve"
associated with many software applications is a simplistic attempt to replicate
Sartin's approach to training race analysis skills.
The basic notion of a "learning curve" is that the arcane numbers and values
generated by the software have real meaning, that the meaning is so complex it
requires extended study to "understand and interpret," and that understanding that
meaning is the key to pari-mutuel success. Rubbish! It would be easier to find the
winners in tea leaves than in the readouts of most "handicapping software."
Most contemporary computer applications are designed by people who are not
even particularly good handicappers. The applications developed by competent
handicappers suffer even more, because those competent handicappers are unable to
articulate how they "interpret" the readout, leaving the new users to founder for
months of frustrating attempts to "learn the software." The net effect of "trying
to find meaning" in the computer readout is continually decreasing analytical
skills--the more you rely on computer readouts, the less able you become to
accurately analyze races.
In short, using the majority of contemporary software applications makes you
less skilled at race analysis. It certainly does not make you more able to
win, better able to analyze
races, or increasingly sophisticated as a handicapper. It just makes you reliant
on software applications that are the equivalent of the daily horoscope in a
newspaper; so ambiguous that almost any interpretation is possible.
DDSS Professional Software
We have been working on developing the "non-professional bettor" versions of DDSS
Harness Professional and DDSS Thoroughbred Professional software applications for public
use for more than two years. We have not released them, because we are not satisfied
that we can overcome the curse that afflicts other "modern" software
applications--the diminished ability of users to make competent decisions.
Using the experience with DDSS Ratings as an example, the typical user expects
the ratings to do everything except deposit the day's profits in the bank. That is,
typical users seem adamantly opposed to exerting even the minimalist cognitive
effort necessary to use DDSS Ratings correctly; they ignore instructions, ignore
Minimum Acceptable Odds (MAO) requirements, bet races blindly as if DDSS Ratings
were the local tout sheet purchased at the track entrance, and then complain
bitterly that they are losing money.
At the same time, experienced, professional bettors are earning steady profits
using the exact same ratings on a daily basis. An additional number of professional
bettors are using the DDSS Harness Platinum-Level Software and DDSS Thoroughbred
Platinum-Level Software as their primary wagering tool and doing very, very well.
We have wrestled with this
paradox for many months, and our conclusion is that proper application of DDSS
Ratings requires that we provide training in their use to prospective and current
users, to enable them to derive the maximum benefit from the ratings.
DDSS Race Analysis Training Materials
We are currently modifying our very successful casino blackjack training
application to train race analysis skills. Because thoroughbred race handicapping and
harness race handicapping are so
popular, the first applications will focus on pre-race analysis of past performances
for thoroughbred races and harness races. Our intention is to develop and extend the basic insights
of speed, pace, and class handicapping, combine them with the best practices of
modern learning theory and information transfer, and, while so doing, train
professional-level pattern recognition skills.
For those business people familiar with Jim Collins' notion of "getting the
right people on the bus," we offer that view in conjunction with a paraphrase of
"Kyle Reese's" immortal line in "Terminator"--"if you want to win, come with us
now." If you are unwilling to devote the time and energy necessary to learn to
win without the crutches of software applications that pretend to think for you,
get off the bus now, and save us both a lot of frustration.
DDSS Advanced and Platinum-Level Ratings are for Professionals ONLY!
Rather than "dumbing down" DDSS Ratings so they can be used by recreational
bettors who steadfastly refuse to follow the most basic instructions and advice,
we prefer to devote our time and effort to improving the race analysis skills of
our DDSS Advanced and DDSS Platinum-Level members. Beginning in late April, 2010
we will again offer DDSS Thoroughbred Basic Ratings and DDSS Harness Basic Ratings to
non-professional handicappers and racing fans.
In plain English, that means if you want to use pari-mutuel investing as a primary or
secondary source of income, you will have to
work for your profit; if you believe that you should be handed winners on a silver
platter so your "effort" is limited to fantasizing about what you will do with
the profit, we
strongly recommend you spend the next few months with one or more of the latest
"gee whiz"
software applications touted on the various handicapping forums, lose your
bankroll, then come back to DDSS Ratings ready to learn and to become a consistent
winner.
Handicapping Software Ignores Basic Statistics
The secondary reason handicapping software applications fail to live up
to the profit indicated by "regression models" or "paper trials" is their failure
to correct for outliers when building models. Outliers are non-typical mutuel
prices that corrupt the data and reduce the predictive effectiveness of the
wagering models. In general,
any track profile or wagering model that uses
less than 10,000 races as a sample must correct for outliers to be
dependable.
If you are using a handicapping software application that performs "multiple
regression analysis" to build track profiles, or that has a "self-adjusting"
or "automatic update" feature that fails to correct for outliers, you are probably
basing your wagers on a seriously flawed data model.
Commercial handicapping software applications routinely ignore outliers,
because doing so creates the illusion of profitability. The "positive return"
of most commercial applications is based solely on the inclusion of outliers
when creating betting models and track profiles. A quick and easy way to correct
for outliers is to sort mutuel prices from lowest to highest and discard the
lowest quarter and the highest quarter.
Average the "middle half" of mutuel prices, then multiply by 1.5. Any mutuel
higher than that figure should be adjusted before including it in calculations
for a wagering model. For example, if the average mutuel is $6, any mutuel higher
than $9 ($6 x 1.5) should be reduced to $9 for modeling purposes. (This is a
standard procedure used to correct for outliers in most business applications,
called "the mean of the interquartile range.")
No commercial handicapping software application currently available to the general
public performs this basic and absolutely essential step in statistical analysis.
Correction for outliers using the mean of the interquartile range in building wagering
models has been an intrinsic part of DDSS Harness Platinum-Level Software and DDSS Thoroughbred
Platinum-Level Software from the beginning. Those applications were developed for serious.
professional bettors who typically wager $500 or more per race, rather than hobbyists and
$2 bettors.
If your
software fails to correct for outliers, any wagering model or track profile built
on less than 10,000 races is probably too skewed to be useful for wagering. "Layering" races into
"models" of a few hundred races at a specific track, distance, or class level is a recipe for disaster.
Finally, another reason handicapping software applications fail to live up
to user expectations is "automatic adjustment" of contenders and pacelines. While
it is possible to massage numbers and theoretically "equalize" a six furlong race
at Turf Paradise so that it can be "compared" with six furlong races at Santa
Anita, the resulting "equalizations" have little or no significance in the real
world.
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Because the predictive value of "tote-board analysis" is a myth. "Tote-board
analysis" is the racing world's version of conspiracy theory; the mistaken belief
that some all-powerful group of "insiders" knows which horse will win each race,
and makes wagers in some repetitive, predictable fashion that can be "analyzed" by
computer.
Rather than "tracking smart money,"
the only thing that tote-board
software can "analyze" is the subjective opinion of the other bettors.
Betting trends are the collective opinions of the other bettors, not a prediction
of which horse will win a given race.
Despite some short-term results that may seem to indicate profitability,
tote-board analysis primarily plays to the timid bettor's feelings of
inadequacy and helplessness. By creating the illusion that the software is
"tracking smart money," unskilled users are persuaded to make wagers that have
little or no relationship to the individual entry's probability of winning the
race.
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Oddly, most people don't wager to win. Psychologists argue that the strongest desire in humans
is the desire to be right; the validation of wagering on the right horse is more important to the
typical racing fan than making a profit.
For some casual or recreational bettors, frequency-based selections are desirable because they
satisfy the "need to be right" and losses can be dismissed as "entertainment." However, most recreational
bettors understand that in order to keep betting (an activity they love), they have to
win more than they
bet or to reduce their wagers to trivial, insignificant amounts. Such wagering is the pari-mutuel
equivalent of crossing a busy street to pick up a nickel or dime dropped by someone less impressed
by insignificant amounts of money--simply not worth the effort. For those bettors, value-driven
selections are essential.
Value-driven selections generally ignore the obvious crowd favorites and short-priced chalk in favor
of higher mutuels and higher returns. By focusing continually on profit as a motivation, value-driven
selections are ideal for both recreational and professional bettors because they clearly distinguish between
"good" bets and "bad" bets.
By focusing on bottom-line profit rather than the immediate gratification of a winning ticket,
value-driven selections avoid the malady that afflicts many bettors, called "choking on chalk." The
term refers to bettors who continually lose money despite frequent wins; no matter what they do, the
wins never seem to compensate for the losses. For both recreational and professional bettors, value-driven
selections are clearly the superior choice.
Our goal in creating the algorithms and data models for DDSS Ratings is a return-on-investment of 120%
or more on win bets, and a return-on-investment of 130% or more on exacta, trifecta, and Pick 3 wagers.
Our focus is always on maximizing profit, rather than selecting a high number of low-priced winners to
inflate "win percentage" figures. Our intent is to provide members with information that will enable
them to profit from wagers on future races, rather than claiming value because of what happened in
races last month or last year.
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Software Availability
DDSS PROFESSIONAL SOFTWARE APPLICATIONS - Because our software
applications are intended for professional bettors and betting syndicates, rather
than for amateur or hobbyist handicappers, strict statistical modeling processes
are built-in, including data cleaning and correction for outliers. (Inclusion
of outliers that corrupt data is the primary reason for the failure of
"handicapping" applications to generate long-term profits).
Our software applications are intended to fully leverage database modeling and
race analysis as a decision-making tool for pari-mutuel investment professionals,
rather than as YAHT (Yet Another Handicapping Toy) for hobbyists who prefer
"handicapping on paper" to wagering.
A limited number of DDSS Harness Professional Sofware race analysis applications
will be available on a first-come, first-served basis to the general public on May 1,
2010. Of the 100 copies available, more than two-thirds have already been ordered by
current DDSS subscribers (as of April 15). DDSS Thoroughbred Professional Software is
currently being
modified for use on the extremely popular Australian and Asian racing circuits, and a
limited number of copies will be available on a first-come, first-served basis to the
general public in mid-summer, 2010. Email support@ddssratings.com for
details and pricing.
DDSS Harness Professional Software and DDSS Thoroughbred Professional Software race analysis
applications will utilize sophisticated, up-to-the-minute data models of
the contender attributes that are currently winning and
currently
offering
the best value
at each track. Data models and track profiles will be
downloadable from
the DDSS website, and continually updated.
With DDSS Harness Professional Software and DDSS Thoroughbred Professional Software you will
always have the very latest information on the contender
factors and attributes that are currently winning and
currently
providing the best ROI
at YOUR tracks of interest. There will be no arcane
jumble of "rating screens," each predicting a different winner.
The printout for each race will include the projected order of finish,
along with explicit recommendations for wagering patterns that fully leverage
the information provided by the data models. There will be no ambiguity, and
no "interpretation" of the readouts will be necessary; that is the whole
point of computer race analysis.
We are limiting the number of copies distributed because we believe that it is
essential to protect the investment opportunities available to our members and
clients by restricting access to DDSS software and to DDSS data.
The primary strength and advantage of Delphi Decision Support System software
is in the sophisticated data models and winner profiles that are created and
maintained for each distance, surface, and class level at each track. DDSS
Thoroughbred Professional race analysis software is designed to use proprietary
data that will be available directly from DDSS.
DDSS Harness Professional Software and DDSS Thoroughbred Professional Software
race analysis applications are standalone applications intended to generate the
same high-quality information used to produce DDSS Harness Advanced Ratings
and DDSS Thoroughbred Advanced Ratings.
DDSS Harness Professional Software and DDSS Thoroughbred Professional Software race
analysis applications reduce the complexity
of wagering by providing a limited range of ratings. Rather than a laundry list
of dozens of ratings that may or may not be important in predicting the outcome
of the current race, the applications use continually updated data models that
specify the most effective impact value for each of the factors evaluated,
specific to the track, distance, surface, and competition of the current race.
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DDSS Specifics
The Exacta Model is highly specific for both the win position and place
position, and uses a complex, multi-level decision matrix to isolate the entries
most likely to provide the highest value in each position.
In general, the top
three DDSS Power Ratings (PR-1, PR-2, and PR-3)
should all be considered as contenders for the win and place positions. The top
selections designated Power Rating-2 and Power Rating-3 are based on the Place
Model and are intended specifically for use in the place position in exactas
and in the place and show positions in trifectas.
The Delta Model also uses a complex, multi-level decision matrix, but with a
different set of algorithms than the Exacta Model. The Delta Model is intended to
isolate the three entries in each race most likely to provide the highest value
in exacta, trifecta, and Pick 3 combinations.
The Delta Model is not intended
to predict the final order of finish, but rather to predict the three entries most
likely to provide the highest value in one or more of the first three finish
positions
. The Delta Model is intended primarily for use by professional
bettors who prefer Pick 3, Pick 4, and Pick 6 wagers. The Delta Model is the primary
readout for DDSS Harness Platinum-Level Software and DDSS Thoroughbred Platinum-Level
Software.
Note: Delta Model results vary substantially between tracks, and results of
Delta Pattern wagering should be monitored for at least a week at your track(s)
of interest before wagering to determine if the potential profits exceed the risk
in your particular investment situation.
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The Optional Model designation indicates a race in which there are several
closely-ranked win position contenders. Inefficiencies in one or more wagering
pools may provide unique profit opportunities.
The top three selections in Optional
Model races should all be considered as potential winners.
Of all the DDSS Models, the Optional Model requires the most subjective
analysis and thoughtful decision-making; it also offers the greatest potential
to earn above average returns. Interpretation and use of Optional Model selections
should only be considered by experienced, full-time professional pari-mutuel
investors. A number of successful DDSS members restrict
their wagers exclusively to Optional Model races. The Optional Model is
intended primarily for use by professional bettors who prefer Pick 3, Pick 4,
and Pick 6 wagers. The Optional Model, along with the Delta Model, are the primary
readouts for DDSS Harness Platinum-Level Software and DDSS Thoroughbred Platinum-Level
Software.
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No. Pari-mutuel racing is a dynamic process, with results changing on a weekly,
daily, and sometimes hourly basis. An approach that is accurate at Aqueduct
may be a big loser at Mountaineer Park, and an approach that is profitable in
April may or may not be profitable in July. The weakness of most “systems” is
that they are based solely on historical data, assuming that events will replicate
past events exactly.
Our data models clearly indicate that some tracks, at some times, are
so overbet1 that it is literally impossible
to gain a positive expectation in wagering at those tracks. Fortunately, our
data models allow us to pinpoint those unprofitable situations, avoid them,
and then take advantage of the opportunities presented when the situation
changes.
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Yes. We will add additional tracks for individual members,
including exclusive rights to the DDSS output for those tracks, if desired. We
can create specific data models for most US and Canadian thoroughbred tracks, as
well as Sha Tin and Happy Valley, the Buenos Aires circuit, and major thoroughbred
tracks in the UK and Australia.
Email us with your specifications.
Creating a new data model for a new track takes approximately six weeks.
Because historical data is only useful in creating the preliminary algorithms,
it is essential to test and modify those algorithms in the real world for four to
five weeks on current races before recommending the selections to our members.
When we create custom data models for our members, we use the exact same
process we use in creating data models for our own use.
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