DDSS Newsletter
The Difference Between Software for Bettors and Software for Hobbyists
As much as possible, professional-level software intended for the use of bettors and betting
syndicates should be a "black box" application. It should require little or no interpretation,
and little or no data analysis or data modeling. A properly designed application should be able
to start picking winners "out of the box" and it should contain explicit instructions that leave
little room for error. In short, the software should do the work, not the software user.
Conversely, software intended for use by hobbyists is intentionally designed with a "jigsaw puzzle"
mentality; the more complex and convoluted the output, the more time it takes to "learn the software,"
the more the hobbyist is supposed to enjoy using the application. Several popular hobbyist applications
state clearly that anyone who expects to make money with their software has "unrealistic expectations"
or deserves to lose because he or she is "unwilling to take the time to learn to use the software." This is
2009, folks. Race analysis software with a "long learning curve" indicates nothing more than incompetent
design and even more incompetent programming.
Our intention in designing DDSS Professional software applications is to make them as easy to use
as possible. In blunt terms, that means the software does the work. The work the software can't do, we do;
it is as simple as that. Professional-level race analysis software requires continual data analysis and data
modeling to be effective. Because we continuously build data models for own use in wagering, we designed
DDSS Professional software to upload and integrate those models on a regular basis.
When you use DDSS Professional software, you are assured of getting the most up-to-date race models for
each track, based on our continual multiple regression analysis of factors that are currently winning
and currently providing the best return at that track. Pari-mutuel investing is a tough game, and we
want to give our members every possible advantage. That means we provide you with the data models we use in
our own wagering--created by expert data analysts for their own use--rather than the mindless number-crunching
of a hobbyist software application.
The idea that "everyone uses the software differently" is a myth perpetuated by designers of hobbyist
software who are unable to use their own software profitably. For any given software application, there is
one--and only one--"best model" for six furlong allowance races on the dirt at Hawthorne. That may be quite
different than a similar model for Santa Anita; different factors may have more or less significance at one
track than at the other. In any case, software developers should know--at any given moment--which of the
many factors and ratings generated by their software are the most predictive in today's race. The only
reason a software developer would NOT know that "one best model" for today's specific race is because he or
she is more interested in selling software than in betting on races, and is essentially clueless about using
the software in the real world.
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Data Models and Recent Results
If data modeling were easy, every kid on the block would have one of his or her own,
and be out milking the mutuel machines every racing day. In fact, data models are complex,
sophisticated approximations of probable reality. Data models are only secondarily based on
events--the real trick is in determining which data points are relevant in predicting
future events.
In a simplistic example, heads come up 1100 times in 2000 coin tosses, and tails come up
900 times. The Gambler's Fallacy jumps in, declaring that betting heads is the way to fame
and fortune, because his "data model" clearly indicates that heads did indeed come up more
often than tails. No matter how patiently statisticians explain things like aberrant results,
anomalies, and spurious causality attributions, Gambler's Fallacy ignores the advice and bets
the rent money on heads in the next 2000 coin tosses.
To the dismay of Gambler's Fallacy, something called "regression to the mean" kicks in. Simply
stated, it means that events tend to "even out"; the unusually high number of heads in the first
2000 coin tosses are more likely to be "evened out" by an unusually high number of tails coming up
in the next 2000 coin tosses.
What that means in horse racing is that data has to be analyzed, rather than uncritically accepted.
The Sartin Methodology theory of "betting what's winning"--accepted uncritically--is a guarantee of
serious losses. Because of "regression to the mean" and "spurious causality attributions," simplistic
data models can be worse than no data models. In short, unless you are a statistician or data modeler,
or at least have a couple of university-level statistics classes under your belt, building "betting models"
with hobbyist software is a recipe for disaster. The numbers frequently do not mean what they seem to mean
at first glance.
We designed DDSS Professional software for our own use. We build our own data models based on multiple
regression analysis of factors that are currently winning and currently providing the best
return at each track. Our data models are created by experts in research methodologies and statistical
analysis--not the "lump together and average" silliness of hobbyist software applications. If you can build
better data models than we can, you are probably working on your second or third million from wagering, and
you don't need us to build data models for you. For everyone else, there is DDSS Professional software.
DDSS Ratings (ddssratings.com)
The Key Component of Accurate Decisions
The key component of accurate decisions in thoroughbred racing is the knowledge of
which few factors will be the most influential in the upcoming race. Because each race
distance, surface, class level, field composition, competition, and dynamics present an
essentially different combination of factors to be considered, accurate predictions MUST
be based on multiple regression analysis of the factors that are significant at this
track, at this distance, at this class level, and in this specific
race, based on the probable performance of the other entries in this race.
Anyone who believes that he or she can "analyze" a race by staring at the words,
numbers, and symbols in "past performance records" or on the typical "handicapping software"
application is seriously wrong. Such a feat would be the
equivalent of predicting the trajectory of a rocket by "eyeballing" the liftoff and
"factoring in" the effect of the wind on the rocket's path. More bluntly, anyone who
hopes to succeed as a pari-mutuel investor is well-advised to discard the notion of
"comparative handicapping" at the earliest opportunity.
In 2009, the ONLY way to succeed as a pari-mutuel investor is better information in
conjunction with better decision-making. Anything else is playing against a severe
disadvantage. "Better information" means, specifically, filtered information based on
multiple regression analysis of the specific factors that are most likely to determine
the outcome of each upcoming race. "Better decision-making" means optimal use of that
information so that--as much as possible--each and every wager is made into a
positive expectation situation
--one in which there is a statistical advantage to
the bettor.
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DDSS Increasingly Focused on Decision Theory
Because our primary subscriber demographic is wagering professionals, we will
increasingly focus on decision-making as the strongest advantage our subscribers
can utilize to gain an advantage over other bettors, and assure their continued
success in pari-mutuel investing. In the coming weeks and months we will provide
increasingly detailed information on developing. fine tuning, and stabilizing both
pattern recognition skills and information processing skills, including multimedia
tutorials, information, and research references.
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DDSS Greyhound Preview!
New subscriptions to DDSS Greyhound Professional Ratings will be accepted beginning
February 1, 2009. Full implementation and updating of our greyhound databases is nearing
completion, including some of the most powerful implementation strategies ever developed.
We will be offering premium-grade, professional DDSS Power Play Races and DDSS Full-Card
Ratings for up to 20 greyhound tracks every racing day beginning the first week of February.
DDSS Greyhound Professional Power Play Races and Full-Card Ratings for up to 20 of your
favorite greyhound tracks will be available for just $297 for 30 Day Access, or $697 for 90
Day Access. DDSS Greyhound Basic Full-Card Ratings for up to 20 of your favorite greyhound
tracks will be available for just $97 for 30 Day Access. You will have access to the most
accurate, most predictive greyhound race ratings available for just $10 a day for DDSS Greyhound
Professional and a little over $3 a day for DDSS Greyhound Basic!
DDSS Greyhound Professional Ratings are a quantum leap ahead of any other greyhound race
selection method available. Using the same sophisticated analytical processes we use to produce
DDSS Thoroughbred Professional Ratings, DDSS Greyhound Professional provides greyhound racing fans
and professional bettors with premium-grade, fully optimized race ratings and race selections every
racing day. DDSS Greyhound Professional and DDSS Greyhound Basic Ratings are based on continuous
multiple regression analysis of the factors that are currently winning and currently
generating the best return at each track, and in each grade.
DDSS Greyhound Professional Ratings are designed for use by professional bettors and betting
syndicates. While they can be used easily by recreational or occasional bettors, they are
strongly biased toward professionals who wager on a daily basis at multiple tracks. If you have
ever dreamed of leveraging greyhound races into a source of income, DDSS Greyhound Professional
Ratings may be your best opportunity ever to realize that dream.
Because DDSS Greyhound Professional Ratings are intended primarily for professional bettors,
generous mutuel returns are our primary concern. Access to DDSS Greyhound Professional will be
strictly limited to 20 subscriptions in any given month. When that number of subscriptions is
reached, no further subscriptions will be accepted until a current subscriber allows their
subscription to lapse. (Given our experience in the past year, that almost never happens--DDSS
Greyhound Professional Ratings have been closed to new subscribers for more than a year.)
If you would like to be put on a waiting list for the first chance at a DDSS Greyhound
Professional Ratings
subscription, email your name and email address to support@ddssratings.com with "Greyhound"
in the subject line. Don't get shut out!
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DDSS Thoroughbred Professional - US and Canadian Tracks
DDSS Power Play Races and DDSS Full-Card Ratings are available for $297 a month,
or $697 for three months. Ratings are provided every racing day for up to 20 of
the most popular US and Canadian thoroughbred tracks.
Rather than simplistic "selections," consider DDSS Ratings the alternative to
5-6 hours of intensive handicapping and race analysis every day, combined with
meticulously detailed data models and data analyses that are track-, surface-,
grade-, and distance-specific. Speed, pace, class moves, current form, workouts,
jockeys, and trainers are all factored in. Continual regression analysis
pinpoints the specific factors and contender attributes that are
currently
winning
and currently providing the best value at each track.
For just $10 a day, you get Full-Card Ratings and premium-grade spot plays that are
as good or
better than the very best you could do yourself with the best software applications
available, daily data downloads, and full-time immersion in thoroughbred race
analysis.
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DDSS Thoroughbred Basic - US and Canadian Tracks
DDSS Full-Card Ratings are available for just $97 a month,
or $247 for three months. Ratings are provided every racing day for up to 20 of
the most popular US and Canadian thoroughbred tracks.
Rather than simplistic "selections," consider DDSS Ratings the alternative to
5-6 hours of intensive handicapping and race analysis every day, combined with
meticulously detailed data models and data analyses that are track-, surface-,
grade-, and distance-specific. Speed, pace, class moves, current form, workouts,
jockeys, and trainers are all factored in. Continual regression analysis
pinpoints the specific factors and contender attributes that are
currently
winning
and currently providing the best value at each track.
For a little over $3 a day, you get ratings that are
as good or
better than the very best you could do yourself with the best software applications
available, daily data downloads, and full-time immersion in thoroughbred race
analysis.
DDSS Ratings (ddssratings.com)